Baltic Dirty Tanker Index

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, BDTI, chart, graph

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Chart Test

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index through the roof

Route Rates 3 - Test

route	class	size	Days	WS	TCE - equiv	breakeven	Date
TD1	VLCC	280 kmt	64 days	120.00	$xx,000	$30,000	Nov. 29th
TD2	VLCC	260 kmt	xxxx	185.00	$130,000+	$30,000	Nov. 29th
TD3	VLCC	250 kmt	38 days	182.50	$130,000+	$30,000	Nov. 29th
TD4	VLCC	260 kmt	xxxx	135.00	$xx,000	$30,000	Nov. 29th
TD5	Suezmax	130 kmt	xxxx	200.00	$27,406	$22,100	Oct. 23rd
TD6	Suezmax	135 kmt	xxxx	155.68	$63,000	$22,100	Oct. 23rd
TD7	Aframax	80 kmt	xxxx	150.00	$xx,000	xx,000	Nov. 29th
TD8	Aframax	80 kmt	xxxx	190.00	xxx	xxx	Nov. 30th
TD9	Aframax	70 kmt	xxxx	170.00	$x,000	$xx,000	Nov. 29th
TD10	Panamax	50 kmt	xxxx	215.00	$xx,000	xx,000	Nov. 28th
TD11	Aframax	80 kmt	xxxx	120.45	$18,613	$15,000	Oct. 11th
TD12	Panamax	55 kmt	xxxx	xxxx	$xx,000	xx,000	xxx
TD14	Aframax	80 kmt	xxxx	180.00	xxx	xxx	Nov.29th

---	From	To	Size	Class
TD1	MEG	USG	280,000mt	VLCC
TD2	MEG	Singapore	260,000mt	VLCC
TD3	MEG	Japan	250,000mt	VLCC
TD4	WAF	USG	260,000mt	VLCC
TD5	WAF	USAC	130,000mt	Suezmax
TD6	Black Sea	Mediterranean	135,000mt	Suezmax
TD7	North Sea	Eur Continent	80,000mt	Aframax
TD8	Kuwait	Singapore	80,000mt	Aframax
TD9	Caribbean	USG	70,000mt	Aframax
TD10	Caribbean	USAC	50,000mt	Panamax
TD11	Mediterranean	Mediterranean	80,000mt	Aframax
TD12	Antwerp	Houston	55,000mt	Panamax
TD14	Indonesia	Japan	80,000mt	Aframax

updated Nov. 30th

Dahlman Rose Upgrades FRO and OSG

Crude Oil Declines as Reports Show OPEC Production Increase
By Mark Shenk
Nov. 26 (Bloomberg)

Crude oil fell on speculation that OPEC is increasing production to reduce record prices and keep the global economy from slowing.

The 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably increase output 1.1 percent to 31.6 million barrels a day this month, according to preliminary estimates by PetroLogistics Ltd. OPEC agreed in September to raise production targets for the 10 members with quotas by 1.9 percent starting Nov. 1.

``The Petrologistics numbers are showing a good-size build in OPEC output,'' said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``Most of the increase is from Iraq, which is fairly encouraging.''

Crude oil for January delivery fell 48 cents, or 0.5 percent, to settle at $97.70 a barrel at 2:44 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $99.11 today, the highest since reaching a record $99.29 on Nov. 21. Oil futures trading began in 1983. Prices are up 65 percent from a year ago.

Iraq, which last month resumed exports from Kirkuk through its northern pipeline network, will make the biggest contribution to the supply increase, raising output by 20 percent to 2.15 million barrels a day, according to PetroLogistics, which assesses supply by tracking tankers.

Iraqi Recovery

``This is the highest we've seen since the U.S. invasion in 2003 and may be a sign that the Iraqi oil industry is finally recovering,'' said Evans.

Iraqi production has yet to recover from the unrest that followed the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003. Iraq produced 2.48 million barrels a day in February 2003, the last month before the invasion. The Persian Gulf country has the world's third-biggest proved oil reserves, according to BP Plc.

Saudi Arabia is producing more than 9 million barrels a day, CNBC reported, citing unidentified people at the Saudi oil ministry. The country, which is OPEC's largest producer and the world's top oil exporter, pumped an average 8.75 million barrels a day in October, the highest since November 2006, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Prices also fell on signs that slowing economic growth in the U.S., Europe and Japan will curb fuel consumption. Investor optimism about financial markets in the U.S., which consumes a quarter of the world's oil, fell this month to the lowest in two years after concern grew that the country is heading toward a recession, according to a UBS AG poll.

The UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism dropped to 44 in November from 70 last month. The sentiment gauge declined to the lowest level since Hurricane Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast and is down from a three-year high of 103 in January.

Frontline Ltd., the world's biggest supertanker operator, and Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. had their ratings raised by Dahlman Rose & Co. because of increasing OPEC shipments. Ship- hire rates on tankers sailing to Asia from the Middle East, the world's busiest market for supertankers, more than doubled since Nov. 9, according to data from the London-based Baltic Exchange. Dahlman is an investment bank that specializes in marine transport companies and related industries.

OPEC will load 24.5 million barrels a day onto tankers in the four weeks to Dec. 8, compared with 23.8 million barrels in the month ended Nov. 10, Oil Movements said on Nov. 22. It will be OPEC's 14th consecutive weekly increase and the biggest this year, according to the company, which tracks shipments.

Upcoming Meeting

The group, which produces more than 40 percent of the world's oil, is scheduled to discuss crude-oil production for the first quarter of 2008 at a meeting in Abu Dhabi on Dec. 5.

``We are primed to make another run for $100,'' said Eric Wittenauer, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``There's a good shot we will make it this time but once that occurs there is no telling what will happen.''

The dollar dropped to a record low against the euro earlier today on concern U.S. credit-market losses may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep reducing interest rates. The U.S. currency recovered against the euro later in the session.

``On one hand there's growing evidence that demand will drop,'' Wittenauer said. ``Economic concerns are being reflected in a number of markets. At the same time, we are seeing weakness in the dollar, which tends to push commodity prices higher.''

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index

Six Month Chart

Backwardation and Contango

Some time ago, a reader asked -

"The crude market seems to be trading back in (at least a mild) backwardation, which means lower inventories. How do you see this impacting on World Scale points/BDTI?"

My view is that the global supply chain for oil is in many cases up to 6 months long, so I typically try to average monthly and weekly figures into periods that are at least 3 months long. Short term fluctuations are just noise. Tanker rates are a matter of supply and demand. There is increasingly less oil being exported and more tankers in all segments entering the market. Even in the face of positive economic growth and supposedly higher demand for oil - the oil simply isn't there to move and their is an increasing glut of tankers. I would expect rates to drop, but there is hardly any room for them to drop, they are already so low.



The only mystery to me is why the valuations for the tanker companies/stocks continue to rise. The investors and the market must see something I'm missing, but I've yet to find what that is.

Here is a good discussion of the backwardation / contango issue :
Speculation and fundamentals in oil prices

BDTI - Baltic Dirty Tanker Index Routes

---	From	To	Size	Class
TD1	MEG	USG	280,000mt	VLCC
TD2	MEG	Singapore	260,000mt	VLCC
TD3	MEG	Japan	250,000mt	VLCC
TD4	WAF	USG	260,000mt	VLCC
TD5	WAF	USAC	130,000mt	Suezmax
TD6	Black Sea	Mediterranean	135,000mt	Suezmax
TD7	North Sea	Eur Continent	80,000mt	Aframax
TD8	Kuwait	Singapore	80,000mt	Aframax
TD9	Caribbean	USG	70,000mt	Aframax
TD10	Caribbean	USAC	50,000mt	Panamax
TD11	Mediterranean	Mediterranean	80,000mt	Aframax
TD12	Antwerp	Houston	55,000mt	Panamax
TD14	Indonesia	Japan	80,000mt	Aframax

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 09.28.07 (Fri)

Imarex
TD3: not available - VLCC - Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) to Chiba (Japan), 260,000mt
TC2: not available - MR2 - Rotterdam to New York (USAC)

SHX: 378.47 ( -2.67/-0.70% ) - PHLX Marine Shipping Index (at highs)





Baltic Dirty Tanker Index: 920 ( -1.29%)

OTII Rates	Sept. 28	Fri	4pm	prev wk
From	To	Size	WS	change
AG	Singapore	260 K	70.00	+ 7.50
AG	Japan	250 K	67.50	+ 6.00
AG	USG	280 K	47.50	0
WAF	USG	260 K	60.00	0
WAF	USAC	130 K	87.50	- 5.00
Indonesia	Japan	80 K	115.00	0

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 09.28.07
Imarex, PHLX, SHX, WS, Worldscale, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, BDTI, chart, graph

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 09.21.07(Fri)

Imarex
TD3: WS79 ( sharp rise ) - VLCC - Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) to Chiba (Japan), 260,000mt
TC2: WS201 ( rise ) - MR2 - Rotterdam to New York (USAC)

SHX: 367.70 ( +13.61/+3.84% ) - PHLX Marine Shipping Index

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index: 944 ( +1.07%)
Sharp Rise

OTII Rates	Sept. 21	Fri	4pm	prev wk
From	To	Size	WS	change
AG	Singapore	260 K	62.50	+ 12.50
AG	Japan	250 K	61.25	+ 11.25
AG	USG	280 K	47.50	+ 5.00
WAF	USG	260 K	57.50	+ 15.00
WAF	USAC	130 K	92.50	+ 20.00
Indonesia	Japan	80 K	115.00	0

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 09.21.07
Imarex, PHLX, SHX, WS, Worldscale, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, BDTI, chart, graph

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 09.14.07 (Fri)

Imarex
TD3: WS56 ( -2 ) - VLCC - Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) to Chiba (Japan), 260,000mt
TC2: WS174 ( -1 ) - MR2 - Rotterdam to New York (USAC)

SHX: 342.67 ( -0.45/-0.13% ) - PHLX Marine Shipping Index

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index: 805 ( +0.50%)

OTII Rates	Sept. 14	Fri	4pm	prev day
From	To	Size	WS	change
AG	Singapore	260 K	50.00	0
AG	Japan	250 K	50.00	0
AG	USG	280 K	42.50	0
WAF	USG	260 K	47.50	0
WAF	USAC	130 K	72.50	0
Indonesia	Japan	80 K	115.00	0

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 09.14.07
Imarex, PHLX, SHX, WS, Worldscale, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, BDTI, chart, graph

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 09.10.07

Imarex
TD3: WS60 ( 0 ) - VLCC - Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) to Chiba (Japan), 260,000mt
TC2: WS180 ( -7.0 ) - MR2 - Rotterdam to New York (USAC)

SHX: 341.43 ( -6.61/-1.90% ) - PHLX Marine Shipping Index

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index: 765 ( -0.78%)
lowest since August 2003

OTII Rates	Sept. 10	Mon	4pm	prev day
From	To	Size	WS	change
AG	Singapore	260 K	55.00	0
AG	Japan	250 K	55.00	0
AG	USG	280 K	42.50	0
WAF	USG	260 K	50.00	0
WAF	USAC	130 K	75.00	0
Indonesia	Japan	80 K	115.00	+5

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 09.10.07
Imarex, PHLX, SHX, WS, Worldscale, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, BDTI, chart, graph

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 09.04.07

Imarex
TD3: WS63 ( -1 ) - VLCC - Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) to Chiba (Japan), 260,000mt
TC2: WS177.5 ( -5.5 ) - MR2 - Rotterdam to New York (USAC)

SHX: 347.43 ( +1.63/-0.46% ) - PHLX Marine Shipping Index

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index: 804 ( -0.62%)
lowest since August 2003



OTII rates (Sep. 4th) [next available:
AG-Singapore - - - - - -260k - - - - WS 55.00
Indonesia-Japan - - - - 80k - - - - - WS 110.00
AG-USG - - - - - - - - - 280k - - - - WS 45.00
WAF - USG - - - - - - - 260k - - - - WS 55.00
WAF - USAC - - - - - - 130k - - - - -WS 75.00

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 09.04.07
Imarex, PHLX, SHX, WS, Worldscale, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, BDTI, chart, graph

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 08.28.07

Imarex
TD3: WS70 ( -4 ) - VLCC - Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) to Chiba (Japan), 260,000mt
TC2: WS187.0 ( -3 ) - MR2 - Rotterdam to New York (USAC)

SHX: 321.75 ( -11.94/-3.58% ) - PHLX Marine Shipping Index

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index: 829 ( -0.48%)
lowest since August 2003


OTII rates (Aug. 28th) [next available:
AG-Singapore - - - - - -260k - - - - WS67.50
Indonesia-Japan - - - - 80k - - - - - WS110.00
AG-USG - - - - - - - - - 280k - - - - WS52.50
WAF - USG - - - - - - - 260k - - - - WS57.50
WAF - USAC - - - - - - 130k - - - - -WS77.50

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 08.28.07
Imarex, PHLX, SHX, WS, Worldscale, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, BDTI, chart, graph

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 08.23.07

VLCC rates rise sharply

Imarex
TD3: WS75 (+5) - VLCC - Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) to Chiba (Japan), 260,000mt
TC2: WS201.0 ( -11.5 ) - MR2 - Rotterdam to New York (USAC)

SHX: 327.45 ( -2.98/-0.90% ) - PHLX Marine Shipping Index

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index: 830 (+1.59%)
lowest since August 2003


OTII rates (Aug. 23rd)
AG-Singapore - - - - - -260k - - - - WS70.00
Indonesia-Japan - - - - 80k - - - - - WS112.50
AG-USG - - - - - - - - - 280k - - - - WS50.00
WAF - USG - - - - - - - 260k - - - - WS55.00
WAF - USAC - - - - - - 130k - - - - -WS75.00

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 08.23.07
Imarex, PHLX, SHX, WS, Worldscale, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, BDTI, chart, graph

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 08.22.07

VLCC rates rise sharply

Imarex
TD3: WS70 (+6) - VLCC - Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) to Chiba (Japan), 260,000mt
TC2: WS212.5 (0) - MR2 - Rotterdam to New York (USAC)


Baltic Dirty Tanker Index: 817 (+1.24%)
lowest since August 2003


OTII rates
AG-Singapore - - - - - -260k - - - - WS70.00(+10)
Indonesia-Japan - - - - 80k - - - - - WS115.00
AG-USG - - - - - - - - - 280k - - - - WS50.00(+2.5)
WAF - USG - - - - - - - 260k - - - - WS70.00(+10)
WAF - USAC - - - - - - 130k - - - - -WS72.50

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 08.22.07
Imarex, PHLX, SHX, WS, Worldscale, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, BDTI, chart, graph

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 08.17.07

Imarex
TD3: WS54 (0) - VLCC - Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) to Chiba (Japan), 260,000mt
TC2: WS189 (-2) - MR2 - Rotterdam to New York (USAC)

SHX: 304.77 (+9.82/+3.33%) - PHLX Marine Shipping Index

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index: 817 (-0.24%)
lowest since August 2003

BDTI - 3 month chart

OTII rates (test)
AG-Singapore - - - - - -260k - - - - WS55.00
Indonesia-Japan - - - - 80k - - - - - WS117.50
AG-USG - - - - - - - - - 280k - - - - WS45.00
WAF - USG - - - - - - - 260k - - - - WS55.00
WAF - USAC - - - - - - 130k - - - - -WS77.50

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 08.17.07
Imarex, PHLX, SHX, WS, Worldscale, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, BDTI, chart, graph

Asia Rates Fall to Lowest in 5 Months

Asia Aframax Tanker Rates Fall to Lowest in Almost Five Months
By Katherine Espina
Aug. 16 (Bloomberg)

The rate for tankers that can carry 80,000 metric tons of fuel or crude oil fell to the lowest in almost five months and may extend the decline until charterers book to transport September cargoes.

The rate for Aframax tankers on the Kuwait-to-Singapore route dropped 1.4 percent to Worldscale 127.29 yesterday, the lowest since March 20, according to data from the London-based Baltic Exchange. It has declined 3.7 percent in the past four days. That puts the cost of shipping a ton of oil on the route at $13.46, Bloomberg data showed.

``There's been very few activity for some time,'' Takeshi Ando, a shipbroker at Matsui & Co's tanker team, said by phone from Tokyo. ``There have been short-haul fixtures in the Indonesia area but no long-haul.''

There were nine tankers scheduled to arrive in Singapore last week and another two this week, capable of carrying a total of 1.2 million tons of cargo, according to Bloomberg data.

The cost of moving 80,000 tons of oil to Japan from Indonesia was at Worldscale 127.50 yesterday, unchanged from Aug. 15, according to Bloomberg data. That puts the cost of shipping a ton of oil on the route at $11.12.

The rate on the Indonesia to Japan route may hover at around Worldscale 120 this week, Matsui's Ando said.

``There's just too many ships available for spot business, and tanker rates should therefore remain low going forward,'' DNB Nor Markets analysts Glenn Lodden and Henrik With said in their weekly report. DNB Nor Markets is a division of DNB Nor Bank ASA, Norway's biggest bank.

Oil Products

The cost of transporting gasoline, diesel and other oil products on medium- to long-range tankers were lower yesterday. The rate of shipping 30,000 tons of oil products to Japan from Singapore declined 0.2 percent to Worldscale 222.08, according to the Baltic Exchange. It lost 8.9 percent in the past 12 days.

The cost of moving 55,000 tons of products to Japan dropped 0.6 percent to Worldscale 185.63, the lowest in five weeks.

The rate for shipping 75,000 tons of oil products fell 0.5 percent to Worldscale 153.86 yesterday, based on data on the Baltic Exchange.

Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 08.07.07

Imarex
TD3: WS56 (0) - VLCC - Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia) to Chiba (Japan), 260,000mt
TC2: WS183 (+1) - MR2 - Rotterdam to New York (USAC)

SHX: 322.96 (+8.92/+2.84%) - PHLX Marine Shipping Index

TankerRates.com (08.03 - 00:30 CET) - NO UPDATE
MEG-East - - - - - - - VLCC - - - - 260k - - - - - - 52
WAF-USAC - - - - - - Suezmax - -130k - - - - - - 91
NSEA-UKC - - - - - - - Aframax - - 80k - - - - - - 80
Singapore-Japan - - - MR - - - - - 30k - - - - - - 230

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index: 904 (-2.59%)


Imarex/SHX Closing Prices 08.07.07
Imarex, PHLX, SHX, WS, Worldscale, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index

The final chart shows the index down approximately 10% over the month of July. At the same time, initial figures show OPEC production increased by 350,000 barrels per day in July. Production in the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, and Qatar) increased by 200,000 bpd from June to July.

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index - 5 year



Baltic Dirty Tanker Index - 3 year

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index - 1 year

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index - 3 month






Baltic Dirty Tanker Index - 1 month





Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, BDTI