Frontline Says Fuel Costs May Spur Tankers to Slow

Frontline Says Fuel Costs May Spur Tankers to Slow
By Alaric Nightingale
July 14 (Bloomberg)

Frontline Ltd., the world's largest owner of supertankers, said a jump in fuel costs may spur owners to sail vessels more slowly to conserve energy, shrinking fleet supply and bolstering ship-rental rates.

The shipper and ``several major owners'' sailed 20 percent slower than normal toward the end of last year after ``low'' demand and record fuel costs hurt margins, according to a May 2 regulatory filing from the company. That cut fleet capacity by about 10 percent and was followed by the biggest two-month gain in freight rates in November and December for at least 16 years.

The possibility of slowing is ``soon again emerging,'' Jens Martin Jensen, Oslo-based interim chief executive officer of Frontline's management unit, said in an e-mail July 10. ``I believe all owners, including ourselves, are monitoring this on a daily basis.''

Supertankers, ships bigger than the Chrysler Building and designed to haul 2 million-barrel cargoes of crude, burn about 100 metric tons of marine fuel a day when sailing at full speed, according to Riverlake Shipping SA, Switzerland's biggest shipbroker. Marine fuel, or bunkers, advanced to a record $754.50 a ton in Singapore July 11, according to prices on Bloomberg.

Frontline fell 0.5 krone, or 0.2 percent, to 326.5 kroner ($64.25) as of 2:16 p.m. in Oslo trading, valuing the shipping line at 24.4 billion kroner. The shares earlier fell as much as 2 percent. The stock has gained 26 percent this year.

Supertanker owners trimmed about $20,000 from their daily fuel costs by slowing down last year, the May 2 filing said. Fuel now represents about 85 percent of daily costs, Jensen said.

Shipping Competitors

Frontline and its competitors sailed at about 12 knots last year, compared with 15 knots normally, according to the filing.

Supertankers are sailing close to their fastest speed for at least two months, according to data complied by Bloomberg.

The average VLCC is moving at 10.45 knots, 13 percent faster than on May 29 when they were traveling at 9.22 knots. The data include ships at anchor. Tanker rental rates are on course for a record year, earning about $107,000 a day, a Bloomberg survey of 13 analysts and brokers this month showed.

Sailing slower would help mitigate a fleet expansion that the International Energy Agency said July 1 will ``massively'' exceed growth in oil demand in the next two years.

Owners decided to slow down last ``autumn,'' Frontline Chief Financial Officer Inger Klemp said by phone July 10. The jump in ship-rental rates after that probably encouraged some to speed up again, she said.

Still, other owners may decide that current rental earnings are too good to sail slower, said Per Mansson, managing director of tanker broker Nor Ocean Stockholm AB.

``It won't happen,'' he said in an e-mailed note today. ``Owners cannot start giving away money in a market like this to improve things at a later stage.''

John Fredriksen

Billionaire Cashes In On Offshore Oil Rush
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120700920323078811.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

With Supply Scarce, His Rigs Are Hot;
$600,000 Day Rate

By GUY CHAZAN
April 1, 2008

LONDON -- As a buccaneering oil trader, John Fredriksen shipped crude from trouble spots like Iran and used hardball tactics to build up the world's biggest tanker fleet. The son of a welder, this modern-day Onassis is now Norway's richest man, worth at least $7 billion.

He is also one of a new breed of entrepreneurs reshaping the oil business.

Mr. Fredriksen has amassed an array of state-of-the-art oil rigs capable of drilling in the world's deepest oceans. With production declining in mature basins like Alaska, the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Brazil and West Africa are oil's hottest real estate. But the rigs that can drill there are in short supply. That means contractors like Mr. Fredriksen can charge huge premiums for their services.

His success is part of a broader power shift from Big Oil -- the Shells, Exxons and BPs of the world -- to the oil-field-services sector. As they venture into ever harsher and more remote environments, the majors are becoming more reliant on these outside contractors -- geologists, well testers, seismic data experts and offshore drillers -- to find and extract their crude. The service companies are the new rule-setters in an increasingly costly game.

Helping to fuel their rise is a growing fear that the world's oil production may be about to plateau and decline. "Peak oil" anxiety has contributed to the steep increase in the price of crude, which has nearly tripled since 2004. Peak theory is now feeding into wider concerns that demand for all the world's resources -- not only oil but wheat, copper and other commodities -- is increasing faster than supply, creating new limits to global growth.

Mr. Fredriksen made an early bet many thought was insane. Three years ago, his company, Seadrill Ltd., broke one of the cardinal rules of the rig business. It ordered two "ultradeep water" rigs, capable of drilling in waters at a depth of at least 7,500 feet, for nearly $900 million -- on spec. It didn't have a single contract from an oil company to guarantee them.

"We didn't feel it was a risk," said Mr. Fredriksen, a 62-year-old with piercing blue eyes, elegantly attired in a blazer and cravat on a recent afternoon in his London office. "We knew there was a boom coming on."

There's no telling how long that boom will last. But Mr. Fredriksen sees years of strong demand ahead. The amount of oil pumped from deep-water fields will nearly double between 2005 and 2010 to about 11 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Douglas-Westwood, a consulting firm, says capital spending on deep-water oil will rise to $25 billion annually by 2012, nearly double the figure for 2003.

Yet there are only 39 rigs in the world capable of drilling in ultradeep water. Seadrill has four of them, with eight more under construction. While there are older companies that are bigger than Seadrill, few have such a modern fleet.

That gives Mr. Fredriksen enormous pricing power. His units are in such demand he can charge major oil companies nearly $600,000 a day to use them. Similar rigs were earning about $70,000 a day just five years ago. With leasing rates like these, a vessel that cost half a billion dollars to build can pay for itself in as little as four years.

The Oil Outsider

John Fredriksen was born in a working-class Oslo suburb in 1944. His humble background set him apart from Norway's blue-blooded shipping aristocracy -- men like Sigval Bergesen and Anders August Jahre, the Nordic equivalent of the Vanderbilts and Rockefellers. They, along with the tycoons of Greece and Hong Kong controlled the world of international shipping in the postwar years. "There was an Ivy League of shipowners -- the founding fathers of the business," says Boris Nachamkin, one of Mr. Fredriksen's first bankers. "He was the outsider."

His first job was as a shipping broker, running cargoes of fish from Iceland to Hamburg, Germany. After brief stints in Canada and New York, he moved to Beirut in the late 1960s. There he shipped crude out of Saudi Arabia and Iraq and sent back cargoes of refined products. He soon developed a firm grasp of the oil trade. "He knows how oil moves, who gets it when it's tight and when it's flowing quickly," says Morten Arntzen, another of Mr. Fredriksen's former bankers and later a business partner.

By the mid-1970s, shipping was in deep trouble. The 1973 Arab-Israeli war sent oil prices into orbit. Fuel consumption plummeted in the West, and demand for long-haul tankers collapsed. Many venerable shipping companies went bust in the slump and Norway's fjords were full of empty tankers. Mr. Fredriksen sensed an opportunity. He started leasing cheap ships and later buying many of them outright.

In the 1980s, Mr. Fredriksen was one of the few traders exporting Iranian oil during the Iran-Iraq war, shuttling tankers through the Persian Gulf from Kharg Island, a big oil terminal that was repeatedly targeted by Saddam Hussein's air force. Mr. Fredriksen says his tankers were hit three times by Iraqi missiles.

A noted reveler, he would often hold court throughout the 1980s at Oslo's fashionable Theatre Café. Locals nicknamed his regular table there Kharg Island.

"When he was traveling, he needed three brokers with him -- one recovering from the night before, one on duty and the other preparing for the next day," says Clarence Dybeck, a fellow shipowner from Sweden. "He had a tremendous capacity for work."

In the world of Norwegian business, he tended to keep a low profile. He never admitted to owning any ships, claiming instead to be acting on behalf of a group of unnamed investors. That was common in the industry, where shipowners could be held liable for wrecks and oil spills, says fellow Norwegian Tor Olav Troim, vice chairman of Frontline, Mr. Fredriksen's shipping company.

"I was more secretive" in those days, says Mr. Fredriksen. Domestic critics denounced him for shipping oil to South Africa, in defiance of the apartheid-era trade embargo. He says all Norwegian shipping firms did it.

In 1985, he moved to Cyprus, lured by lower taxes and the island's reputation as a shipping center. "It's almost impossible to do business in Norway today," he says, citing the tax regime and frequent regulatory changes. In 1986, the Norwegian authorities charged him with fraud, alleging that his tankers were found to have used customers' cargoes for fuel. Police raided his offices in Oslo, and he turned himself in a few days later. The main charges were later dropped and he paid a fine on a lesser charge. But the affair still rankles: It was motivated by "jealousy" of his success, he says.

Mr. Fredriksen's penchant for secrecy changed in 1996 when he bought Frontline, a publicly listed Swedish shipping company. It soon grew into a giant, and a key force in the consolidation of the fragmented shipping business. In 1996 he owned seven tankers. By 2001, Frontline had 70. The company today has the world's biggest tanker fleet, with 86 vessels.

Hardball Tactics

A year after he bought Frontline, he launched a hostile takeover bid for ICB Shipping, a Swedish tanker firm. His methods -- full-page ads in local newspapers, angry letters to ICB board members, pressuring shareholders -- shocked some Swedes. "No one had seen those sort of tactics before in Sweden," says Clarence Dybeck, the then head of ICB. "He could be quite brutal." After a grueling two-year battle, he finally won control of the company.

Mr. Fredriksen was meanwhile benefiting from big changes in the oil-shipping industry. After notorious oil spills like the Erika, a tanker which broke up off the coast of France in 1999, oil companies stopped chartering dangerous single-hull tankers. Such ships have a single outer shell between the oil and the ocean; double-hull tankers, which have an extra space between hull and storage tank, are considered safer. Shipowners who had invested in double-hulls cleaned up. John Fredriksen was one of them.

The tanker business was also coming out of its slump. Fields close to the big oil-consuming countries -- in the North Sea, Alaska and Mexico -- were declining. Crude was increasingly coming from faraway places like West Africa and the Middle East. China and India were emerging as major oil importers. Long-haul tankers were back in vogue. With his expanded fleet, Mr. Fredriksen cashed in on a freight market that was entering a new golden age. By 2001, the chartering rates paid by the oil companies to ship crude around the globe were the highest they had been in 30 years.

Already a billionaire, in 2002 he bought the Old Rectory, a mansion in London's ritzy Chelsea district, from the Greek shipping family of Theodore Angelopoulos, for £38 million (at the time, about $57 million), one of the highest prices ever paid for a London home. The house has a rich history: The Battle of Waterloo was planned in its garden.

He also continued to diversify. He currently has stakes in dozens of businesses, from shipping to fish farming to oil trading. His empire includes "dry bulk" ships, those that carry things like coal, steel and grain, as well as liquefied-natural-gas carriers and tugboats that supply offshore oil platforms. His company Marine Harvest is the world's biggest producer of farmed salmon. Among other investments: Aktiv Kapital, a buyer of distressed consumer debt, and Arcadia Petroleum, a big crude-oil trading firm.

A Big Rig Bet

One of his boldest moves, in terms of startup costs and the risk of failure, was into the drilling business. As oil prices began their ascent in 2003, contractors were putting in big orders for mobile drilling platforms that operate in shallow waters. But Mr. Fredriksen says his contacts in Asian shipyards told him the majors weren't investing enough in deep-water rigs.

Yet deep-water drilling's potential was clear: Offshore Angola, some companies drilling for crude had an unprecedented 95% "hit" rate, says Mr. Troim. Messrs. Fredriksen and Troim started ordering semisubmersibles, or "semis" -- one of the most advanced kind of floating rigs. In June 2005, a month after taking the newly created Seadrill public, they commissioned two semis, one for $394 million and another for $490 million. "Everyone was laughing at us at the beginning," says Mr. Troim. "We were Mr. Nobody."

Larger than a football field, semis are floating vessels, supported by big pontoonlike structures submerged below the sea surface, that can operate in waters up to 10,000 feet deep. Dynamic positioning -- a computer-controlled thruster system fed by data from satellites and transponders located on the seabed -- keeps them in place directly above the oil well. The price tag for such a vessel is now around $655 million.

Seadrill expanded aggressively, ordering new rigs and swallowing up competitors in a flurry of deal making. Its market value has grown from $200 million when it listed in 2005 to $10.5 billion today.

"Fredriksen and Troim move very fast," says Odd Harald Hauge, a Norwegian journalist who has written two books on Mr. Fredriksen. "They do deals on napkins."

A Wave of Mergers

One of their most daring acquisitions was of Smedvig ASA, a big Norwegian driller, in January 2006. Noble Corp., a U.S. rival, had taken a 30% stake in the company, but Seadrill snapped up shares and eventually forced Noble to sell out. "We bought that in a taxi in Seoul," says Mr. Fredriksen.

The revved-up drilling sector was being swept by merger fever. In July 2007, Transocean Inc. and GlobalSantaFe Corp., the world's two biggest offshore-drilling contractors by market value, agreed to an $18 billion merger. Seadrill itself has often been touted as a potential takeover target by a more established U.S. or Asian driller. Mr. Troim said it approached some U.S. rivals about a tie-up in 2006, but the talks went nowhere.

A merger would help solve one of Seadrill's key problems -- a lack of staff, especially engineers and drill operators who are in short supply. Seadrill has tried to deal with that by aggressively poaching managers and crews from its peers. The company recently hired one of Transocean's top executives to run its Houston office.

There are some worries the sector's boom may be unsustainable. Analysts fret that contractors may have ordered too many rigs, which will lead to overcapacity and a collapse in day rates. But others say high oil prices, which underpin the business, will stay lofty for years to come, and that with many rigs contracted out well into the next decade, the deep-water drillers have a bright future.

For the time being, the majors are in a bind. In the 1990s, when oil slumped to $10 a barrel, they aggressively cut costs, shed jobs and divested themselves of assets. When oil prices recovered, they often lacked personnel and equipment and were forced to outsource a lot of the work of drilling and extracting crude.

Some of the majors are now resorting to building their own, cheaper rigs. Royal Dutch Shell PLC has designed a new class of drilling vessel, the bully rig, which it says is suitable for both deep-water and arctic conditions and will cost 20% less to lease than the competition. But it will only take delivery of the first two in 2010.

Mr. Troim was recently in Houston meeting with potential customers: One person familiar with the talks said oil executives came away shaken by the sky-high rates Mr. Troim was demanding -- up to $600,000 a day. Mr. Troim says Seadrill's charges are typical for the industry, and the market can bear them. "It's been fun to see a company grow from two men and a dog to being a major player in this market," says Mr. Troim. "More fun than making money."

Write to Guy Chazan at guy.chazan@wsj.com

Frontline Shares Fall As Contract Ends

Frontline Shares Fall As Contract Ends
Associated Press
12.04.07
Forbes.com

Shares of Frontline Ltd. slipped in trading Tuesday, after a JPMorgan analyst reduced his 2008 earnings estimates to reflect the oil tanker operator's expected losses from the end of two long-term charter agreements.

Frontline (FRO) said earlier Tuesday it ended deals for two vessels with Ship Finance International Ltd. (SFL ), which then sold the tankers for $40 million each. Frontline expects $32.8 million for the contract's early termination.

Analyst Jonathan B. Chappell cut his 2008 profit estimate to $2.55 per share from $2.70 per share, saying the company "continues to trade short-term gains for long-term earnings losses."

He reiterated his "Underweight" rating for Frontline, and suggested the stock should underperform other tanker operators for the next nine months to a year.

Shares of Frontline fell $1.76, or 3.9 percent, to close at $42.87. The stock has ranged between $29.35 and $53.09 in the past year.

Chappell also lowered 2008 profit estimate on Ship Finance to $1.77 per share from $1.96 per share.

However, Chappell said that unlike Frontline, he expects Ship Finance to use the sale's proceeds to diversify and expand its fleet outside of the struggling tanker market.

He maintained his "Overweight" rating.

Ship Finance shares fell 57 cents to $24.64.

Omar Nokta upgrades FRO, OSG, NAT

Oil Tankers Owe Strength to OPEC
Ruthie Ackerman
11.26.07
Forbes.com

Increased oil production has sent spot charter rates surging on oil tankers in the last week, helping to keep the stocks of crude oil tankers and operators above water.

On Monday, Dahlman Rose & Co. analyst Omar Nokta, upgraded three tanker companies because they are the most exposed to the strong spot rates. Nokta raised his rating on Frontline, Overseas Shipholding Group, and Nordic American Tanker Shipping to “buy” from “hold” and reiterated his “buy” rating on General Maritime, Tsakos Energy Navigation, Ship Finance International, and Omega Navigation Enterprises.

But even with the upgrade oil tanker stocks were a mixed bag at the close on Monday, indicating investors didn't share Nokta's optimism.

Notka said the spot rates on the Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCC’s, have jumped in the Arabian Gulf in the past few days. Last week, VLCC’s averaged $33,000 per day. On Monday morning they spiked to $84,000 per day, a level not seen since August 2006. The number of vessels being chartered has jumped significantly, limiting the supply of ships, Nokta said.

The strength in the oil tanker market has spread to West Africa and the Mediterranean as well, he added.

The problem for oil tanker lines over the last year has been that the supply of ships outstripped the demand for oil. With oil prices at record highs since OPEC's production cut in Nov. 2006, demand for oil tankers fell.

But Nokta believes the strong demand for oil tankers over the last few weeks is a result of increased production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. As global oil stock levels have fallen over the past six months, OPEC has been under pressure to increase production. OPEC appears to have raised production by 750,000 barrels, Nokta said, which is more than the 500,000 barrel boost it previously announced.

Nokta believes the increased production is a sign that a formal boost should come when OPEC meets on Dec. 5. With gasoline, U.S. heating oil, and crude oil stockpiles down substantially there should be a significant amount of imports through the winter and into the spring, boosting the demand for oil tankers, Nokta said.

The conversion of 60 VLCCs into dry bulk carriers for 2008 and 2009 should offset a significant number of the 36 new VLCCs being built and the 69 more being delivered in 2009. With increased production in the Arabian Gulf demand will increase helping the tanker market to outperform expectations, Nokta said.

Dahlman Rose Upgrades FRO and OSG

Crude Oil Declines as Reports Show OPEC Production Increase
By Mark Shenk
Nov. 26 (Bloomberg)

Crude oil fell on speculation that OPEC is increasing production to reduce record prices and keep the global economy from slowing.

The 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will probably increase output 1.1 percent to 31.6 million barrels a day this month, according to preliminary estimates by PetroLogistics Ltd. OPEC agreed in September to raise production targets for the 10 members with quotas by 1.9 percent starting Nov. 1.

``The Petrologistics numbers are showing a good-size build in OPEC output,'' said Tim Evans, an analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``Most of the increase is from Iraq, which is fairly encouraging.''

Crude oil for January delivery fell 48 cents, or 0.5 percent, to settle at $97.70 a barrel at 2:44 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $99.11 today, the highest since reaching a record $99.29 on Nov. 21. Oil futures trading began in 1983. Prices are up 65 percent from a year ago.

Iraq, which last month resumed exports from Kirkuk through its northern pipeline network, will make the biggest contribution to the supply increase, raising output by 20 percent to 2.15 million barrels a day, according to PetroLogistics, which assesses supply by tracking tankers.

Iraqi Recovery

``This is the highest we've seen since the U.S. invasion in 2003 and may be a sign that the Iraqi oil industry is finally recovering,'' said Evans.

Iraqi production has yet to recover from the unrest that followed the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003. Iraq produced 2.48 million barrels a day in February 2003, the last month before the invasion. The Persian Gulf country has the world's third-biggest proved oil reserves, according to BP Plc.

Saudi Arabia is producing more than 9 million barrels a day, CNBC reported, citing unidentified people at the Saudi oil ministry. The country, which is OPEC's largest producer and the world's top oil exporter, pumped an average 8.75 million barrels a day in October, the highest since November 2006, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Prices also fell on signs that slowing economic growth in the U.S., Europe and Japan will curb fuel consumption. Investor optimism about financial markets in the U.S., which consumes a quarter of the world's oil, fell this month to the lowest in two years after concern grew that the country is heading toward a recession, according to a UBS AG poll.

The UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism dropped to 44 in November from 70 last month. The sentiment gauge declined to the lowest level since Hurricane Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast and is down from a three-year high of 103 in January.

Frontline Ltd., the world's biggest supertanker operator, and Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. had their ratings raised by Dahlman Rose & Co. because of increasing OPEC shipments. Ship- hire rates on tankers sailing to Asia from the Middle East, the world's busiest market for supertankers, more than doubled since Nov. 9, according to data from the London-based Baltic Exchange. Dahlman is an investment bank that specializes in marine transport companies and related industries.

OPEC will load 24.5 million barrels a day onto tankers in the four weeks to Dec. 8, compared with 23.8 million barrels in the month ended Nov. 10, Oil Movements said on Nov. 22. It will be OPEC's 14th consecutive weekly increase and the biggest this year, according to the company, which tracks shipments.

Upcoming Meeting

The group, which produces more than 40 percent of the world's oil, is scheduled to discuss crude-oil production for the first quarter of 2008 at a meeting in Abu Dhabi on Dec. 5.

``We are primed to make another run for $100,'' said Eric Wittenauer, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``There's a good shot we will make it this time but once that occurs there is no telling what will happen.''

The dollar dropped to a record low against the euro earlier today on concern U.S. credit-market losses may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep reducing interest rates. The U.S. currency recovered against the euro later in the session.

``On one hand there's growing evidence that demand will drop,'' Wittenauer said. ``Economic concerns are being reflected in a number of markets. At the same time, we are seeing weakness in the dollar, which tends to push commodity prices higher.''

Frontline Third-Quarter Profit Falls 76%

Frontline Third-Quarter Profit Tumbles on Hire Rates
By Alaric Nightingale
Nov. 15 (Bloomberg)

Frontline Ltd., the world's biggest operator of supertankers, said third-quarter profit tumbled 76 percent as it leased out ships for less and fuel costs surged.

Net income fell to $24.2 million, or 32 cents a share, from $98.8 million, or $1.32, a year earlier, Hamilton, Bermuda-based Frontline said in a statement to the Oslo stock exchange today. That missed the $40 million, or 53-cents-a-share, median estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Refineries are cutting crude-oil imports because of reduced processing margins, Frontline said. At the same time, fuel costs for shipping lines are increasing as oil prices reach a record. Tanker-rental rates also shrank because of the ``high availability'' of ships, the company said.

``They are hardly making any money,'' said Siri Evjemo Nysveen, a broker at Kaupthing Ltd. in London, who until September covered Frontline as an analyst at the bank. ``This is a very negative report.'' The company may be forced to cut its profit outlook for 2008, she said.

The shares closed down 3.5 kroner, or 1.6 percent, to 213 kroner in Oslo trading, the lowest since April 26. The slide pared the stock's advance this year to 19 percent, valuing the company at 15.9 billion kroner ($2.9 billion).

Earnings from Frontline's very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, declined 39 percent to $36,000 a day, while those from its 1 million-barrel carriers declined 37.5 percent to $25,000 a day. Breakeven levels are $30,000 and $22,100 respectively.

Independent Tankers

Frontline's third-quarter sales slumped 32 percent to $276 million. Profit included a gain of $4.8 million on the sale of the tanker Front Horizon. Excluding that transaction, net income was $19.3 million, less than the $28 million, or 38.5-cent-a- share, median estimate from 10 analysts.

The company is continuing to investigate ``alternatives and options'' for its Independent Tankers Corp., a Cayman Islands- based business that owns 10 tankers leased out on fixed-rate charters to BP Plc and Chevron Corp., Chief Executive Officer Bjoern Sjaastad said on a conference call today.

Frontline would have to make a deal with bondholders and the oil companies who are leasing the ships before it could sell the company or the vessels it owns, Sjaastad said. ITC's outstanding debt is $469.7 million and it is paying an 8.5 percent interest rate to finance its ships.

Tanker Sale

Operating performance in the final three months of the year will be ``in line'' with the third quarter, Frontline said. Net income will be buoyed by the sale of shares of Imarex NOS ASA, an Oslo-based derivatives broker, and Dockwise Ltd., a company that hauls oil rigs.

World oil demand will rise 2.3 percent next year, Frontline said, citing data from the International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 nations.

The carrying capacity of the global fleet of VLCCs will climb almost 6 percent to about 156.5 million tons in 2008, from about 148 million tons at the end of this year, according to estimates from London-based shipbroker Galbraith's Ltd.

The Galbraith's assessment assumes 40 new VLCCs will enter service next year, each with a capacity of about 310,000 tons, and 15 carriers that can each haul about 260,000 tons will be switched to other trades.

At least 38 VLCCs will be converted to ``non-trading purposes'' worldwide by the end of 2008, Frontline said today. Of those ships, 90 percent will become iron-ore carriers, and 10 percent will be turned into storage and production vessels.

The company plans a dividend of $1.50 a share for the third quarter. Frontline has said it plans to pay about 100 percent of profits to shareholders in the form of dividends.

About 40 percent of Frontline's fleet is protected from possible declines next year in the single-voyage, or spot, market through shipping contracts with oil companies that pay a fixed daily amount.

Analysts Trash Tanker Stocks

Frontline, Teekay Crash Nears Amid Tanker Glut, Crude
By Alaric Nightingale and Todd Zeranski
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg)

The record increase in oil prices and the unprecedented number of new tankers transporting crude is a stock market crash waiting to happen.

That, at least, is the growing consensus among analysts who say the widening gap between West Texas Intermediate crude and the rate for supertankers shipping Middle East oil to Asia means industry titans Frontline Ltd., Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. and Teekay Corp. have unsustainable valuations.

The Bloomberg Tanker Index has risen 44 percent in the past two years, even as freight rates sank 49 percent. The price of marine fuel, the biggest cost for shipowners, has advanced 44 percent in that time, reaching a record $446.50 a metric ton on Oct. 17. The number of ships available is close to a record.

``It doesn't look good at all,'' said Andreas Vergottis, who helps manage $1.2 billion at Isle of Man-based Tufton Oceanic Ltd., the world's biggest hedge fund dedicated to shipping. ``We've got a wall of worry and a wall of new buildings flooding the market ahead of us.'' He said the stocks are 30 percent overvalued.

Frontline, the world's biggest operator of supertankers, reached a record low of 3.80 kroner in December 1998. The stock this year has gained 30 percent and was trading 2.1 percent lower at 233 kroner as of 12:03 p.m. in Oslo. The gain has helped make Chairman John Fredriksen into Norway's richest man, with a fortune that Forbes magazine estimates at $7 billion.

Too Many Ships

The looming decline for tanker stocks is a legacy of the biggest tanker construction program in history. Teekay, Frontline and Overseas Shipholding in 2004 earned a combined $2.2 billion, triple the level of a year earlier, because of a jump in world oil demand. They used that profit to help order 522 tankers from builders including Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. and Samsung Heavy Industries Co.

The size of the oil tanker fleet expanded 3.8 percent this year, overwhelming the 1.7 percent increase in crude oil demand estimated by the International Energy Agency. The fleet will increase by as much as 32 percent during the next five years, estimates Lloyd's Register-Fairplay, the company that assigns ship registration numbers.

Tankers are being built at the fastest rate ever, according to Clarkson Plc, the world's largest shipbroker, which began collecting industry data in 1852.

Tankers capable of hauling 1.2 billion barrels of crude, equal to about two weeks of global oil consumption, will enter service in the six years that end in 2009, according to Clarkson. The total is 1 percent higher than the previous record, from the 1970s.

Straight to Scrapyards

Ship demand at that time slowed, and newly built tankers were sent straight to demolition, said Per Mansson, a shipbroker for Nor Ocean Stockholm AB, a former second mate and executive at Frontline before Fredriksen bought the company. Some tankers hauled one cargo from Asian shipyards to northwest Europe, only to be laid up in the fjords of Norway, he said.

``It got so bad that, on one voyage from Sweden to Venezuela, we turned the engine off and went with the current down to the Caribbean because fuel was so expensive,'' said Mansson, 55. ``We got a telegram from Exxon to go at 7 knots, so we just floated down.''

The Bloomberg Tanker Index has gained 32 percent this year, outpacing a 5.8 percent increase in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and a 6.4 percent drop in U.S. government 10-year bonds. Oil is up 41 percent and reached a record $90.07 a barrel in New York Mercantile Exchange trading on Oct. 19.

Teekay has appreciated 32 percent this year to $57.72 on the New York Stock Exchange, valuing the Bahamas-based company at $4.3 billion. Overseas Shipholding, based in New York, has advanced 27 percent to $71.56.

Demolitions

Shares of Frontline are heading for an 11 percent decline, according to Henrik With, the DnB Nor Markets analyst whose advice on Frontline gave clients a 91 percent gain in the past year. Teekay may decline 26 percent, he forecasts. Among all analysts tracked by Bloomberg, at least 70 percent say the two stocks aren't worth buying.

Frontline Chief Executive Officer Bjoern Sjaastad in an interview said oil carriers will be sold and converted to haul bulk commodities, easing the ship surplus. Also, the speed of demolitions ``will go a lot faster than many people think,'' bolstering freight rates, he said.

Teekay spokeswoman Alana Duffy said the company can't comment before an earnings release at the end of the month. Overseas Shipholding spokeswoman Jen Schlueter said CEO Morten Arntzen wasn't immediately available for an interview.

Time Charters

Shipowners can protect against a drop in the single-voyage market by leasing vessels on so-called time charter contracts that can last months or years, while paying a fixed amount.

About 40 percent of Frontline's ships had such protection for 2007 and 2008, according to an Aug. 22 statement. Seventeen percent of Teekay's 111 carriers had such contracts, while none of Overseas Shipholding Group's biggest carriers had such deals.

Teekay protects itself against increases in the cost of marine fuel. Frontline and Overseas Shipholding don't. The industry's pricing mechanism, known as Worldscale, is updated once a year to reflect changing fuel prices.

Demand for single-voyage charters is ``stuck in a rut'' because the soaring price of oil is squeezing refiners and discouraging purchases, said Omar Nokta, an analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co. in New York. He advises investors hold their Frontline shares.

Losing Money

Refineries are losing 63 cents on each barrel they process in Europe, compared with a profit of $7.86 in May, because crude costs are rising faster than prices for gasoline and diesel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

``All this weakness is stemming from refineries not being in the market,'' said Nokta, whose call on Frontline during the past year led to a 35 percent profit for investors.

Analysts value shipping stocks in relation to the cost of second-hand tankers. From December 2003 through July 2007, those ship values more than doubled, according to data from the London- based Baltic Exchange. Since then, ship prices have dipped, exchange data show.

``Asset values will fall and dividend payments must be cut,'' said DnB Nor Markets' With. ``Too much fleet capacity coming on stream will put pressure on earnings from 2008 to 2010.''

Freight Rates

Falling freight rates and record fuel costs have given shipowners their longest string of losses in five years, according to Citigroup Inc., the third-largest lender to the shipping industry. So-called very large crude carriers, which transport about 2 million barrels, are losing more than $13,000 a day in the market for day-to-day charters. Shipowners are spending more on fuel and debt payments than they collect in rent.

Suezmax vessels, the biggest tankers that can navigate Egypt's Suez canal while full, are losing more than $10,000 a day. Owners of aframaxes, 600,000-barrel carriers that usually haul crude within the same continent, are losing about $13,000 a day, Citigroup estimates.

Thirty of the largest tankers may be sold and converted into carriers for grain, coal and iron ore, markets where freight rates are at a record high, Frontline's Sjaastad said.

``For the next 15 months, there isn't going to be substantial additions to the fleet, you'll have depletions going to dry bulk,'' said Dahlman Rose's Nokta. ``If you have the demand push, then they'll be able to absorb the vessels. Demand would keep a natural floor.''

China's economy is growing at almost 12 percent a year and India's by 9.3 percent, spurring demand for oil, steel, iron ore and coal.

No Cargoes

Some 50 supertankers have failed to find cargoes in the past month, and vessels will compete for consignments in November, extending declines for owners, forecasts Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles.

Relief may not come until 2010, when the United Nations' shipping agency, the International Maritime Organization, adopts a ban on single-hull tankers, those at greatest risk of spilling oil in the event of an accident. Once the policy takes full force five years later, the only tankers plying the oceans must have two steel hulls.

``Everything now is about what happens between today and 2010,'' says Ole Stenhagen, an analyst at SEB Enskilda in Oslo. ``We are in for a real dip in rates and a rough environment.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anj25lHh6K4E

Frontline (FRO) Q2 Profit Doubles

Frontline Profit More Than Doubles on Spinoffs, Sales
By Alaric Nightingale
Aug. 22 (Bloomberg)

Frontline Ltd., the world's biggest operator of supertankers, said second-quarter profit more than doubled as it increased charges for hiring out ships and spun off two companies.

Net income rose to $189 million, or $2.53 a share, from $68.6 million, or 92 cents a share, a year earlier, Hamilton, Bermuda-based Frontline said in a statement to the Oslo stock exchange today. Profit will be ``considerably weaker'' in the current quarter because of declining demand, it said.

``They are less optimistic about the future than they have been previously,'' said Anders Rosenlund, an Oslo-based analyst at ABG Sundal Collier ASA who recommends that investors sell the shares. Ship-hire rates were ``a bit better than people were expecting,'' he said.

Profit was boosted by $109.8 million from share and vessel sales. Frontline's biggest tankers earned 2.5 percent more in the quarter than a year earlier while income from smaller carriers rose by a quarter. Vessels leased out in the day-to- day, or spot, market may be operating at a loss as two production cuts by OPEC since November crimp cargo demand.

Frontline's shares climbed 7 kroner, or 2.8 percent, to 257.50 kroner as of 11:16 a.m. in Oslo, valuing the company at 19.3 billion kroner ($3.2 billion).

Frontline, led by Norwegian billionaire John Fredriksen, said it expects the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to boost crude supply ``in the near future.''

The company needs $30,000 a day to break even on each of its very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, and $22,100 on its 1 million-barrel carriers, called suezmaxes. Currently, VLCCs are paying about $22,000 a day and suezmaxes $13,500, based on a formula by Oslo-based shipbrokers RS Platou A/S, benchmark ship- hire rates and marine-fuel prices compiled by Bloomberg.

$51,900 a Day

The company's VLCCs made $51,900 a day in the second quarter, compared with $50,600 a year earlier. Its Suezmax tankers made $38,600, compared with $30,600. Daily rental income from so-called oil-bulk-ore carriers, which are able to carry oil or commodities, earned $38,300, an increase of 27 percent.

The spinoff of Sea Production Ltd., a company that will operate storage and production vessels, boosted profit by $31.2 million, the company said. The merger of SeaLift Ltd., which was spun off in the first quarter, with Dockwise Transport NV contributed $43.7 million.

Frontline Ltd Raised to `Strong Buy'

Frontline Ltd Raised to `Strong Buy' at S&P :FRO NO
London, Aug. 22 (Bloomberg Data)

Frontline Ltd (FRO NO) was raised to ``strong buy'' from ``hold'' by analyst Finn Bjarke Petersen at Standard & Poor's. The price target is 300.00 kroner per share.

Frontline (FRO) earnings increase in Q2

Second Quarter and Six Months Results 2007

The Board of Frontline Ltd. (the ``Company'' or ``Frontline'') announces net income of $189.1 million for the second quarter of 2007, equivalent to earnings per share of $2.53. Operating income for the quarter was $190.9 million, including a gain on sale of assets of $66.1 million. This gain consists of $31.2 million relating to the sale of the shares in Sea Production Ltd. (``Sea Production''), $21.8 million to the delivery of the first converted heavy lift vessel and $13.1 million relating to the termination of the capital lease for Front Vanadis. Operating income was $178.6 million in the first quarter which then included a gain on sale of assets of $21.3 million. Net income also includes a gain on the issuance of shares in Sealift in connection with the business combination with Dockwise of $43.7 million in the second quarter. Net income in the first quarter included a gain on the issuance of shares in Sea Production of $39.8 million.

The reported earnings reflect a somewhat improved market partly offset by a reduction is trading days in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. The average daily time charter equivalents (``TCEs'') earned in the spot and period market by the Company's VLCCs, Suezmax tankers and Suezmax OBO carriers were $51,900, $38,600 and $38,300, respectively compared with $50,200, $34,900 and $36,600, respectively in the first quarter. The results show a continued differential in earnings between single and double hull tonnage. The spot earnings for the Company's double hull VLCC and Suezmax vessels were $57,700 and $50,500, in the second quarter, compared to $56,600 and $48,100, in the first quarter.

In the second quarter of 2007 Frontline is no longer consolidating Ship Finance International Limited (``Ship Finance''). As a consequence the earnings reflect a decrease in revenues compared to the first quarter of 2007 related to the vessels in Ship Finance which are not chartered in by Frontline. Profit share expense of $15.7 million has been recorded in the second quarter as a result of the profit sharing agreement with Ship Finance. In the first quarter of 2007 the profit share expense was eliminated on consolidation of Ship Finance in the income statement, and the profit share expense was booked directly to equity as part of the spin off of Ship Finance.

Charterhire expenses have increased by $5.8 million in the second quarter as a consequence of more vessels chartered in compared to the first quarter. Ship operating expenses have increased by $4.6 million in the second quarter compared to the first quarter due to more drydocking costs expensed in the second quarter.

Administrative expenses have decreased by $3.3 million compared to the first quarter. Administrative expenses in the first quarter included non-recurring items of $1.6 million for Ship Finance and $1.9 million for the Company's FPSO activities.

Interest income was $15.7 million in the second quarter, of which $8.3 million relates to restricted deposits held by subsidiaries reported in Independent Tankers Corporation (``ITC''). Interest expense was $63.9 million in the second quarter of which $16.9 million relates to ITC and $47.9 million relates to the capital lease interest expense in Frontline.

Other financial items in the second quarter were a gain of $0.7 million compared to a gain of $5.1 million in the first quarter. Frontline has no valuation losses or gains in interest rate swaps and bond swaps in the second quarter compared to valuation losses of $2.5 million in interest rate swaps along with valuation gains of $6.1 million in bond swaps recorded in the first quarter. All interest rate and bond swaps related to Ship Finance.

Frontline announces net income of $347.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2007, equivalent to earnings per share of $4.65. The average TCEs earned in the spot and period market by the Company's VLCCs, Suezmax tankers, and Suezmax OBO carriers for the six months period ended June 30, 2007 were $51,000, $36,700 and $37,500, respectively.

As of June 30, 2007, the Company had total cash and cash equivalents of $861.0 million which includes $651.4 million of restricted cash. Restricted cash includes $416.6 million relating to deposits in ITC and $232.0 million in Frontline Shipping Limited and Frontline Shipping II Limited which are restricted under the charter agreements with Ship Finance.

The 2006 financial statements have been restated to reflect the revised accounting treatment for three entities within the ITC group which were previously fully consolidated but are now being accounted for as investments under the equity method. The restatement has no effect on net income.

As of August 2007, the Company has average cash breakeven rates on a TCE basis for VLCCs and Suezmaxes of approximately $30,000 and $22,100, respectively.

The full report is available in the link below.

http://hugin.info/182/R/1148282/219291.pdf

Persian Gulf Oil-Tanker Rates May Rise

Persian Gulf Oil-Tanker Rates May Rise on Weather, OPEC Cargoes
By Alaric Nightingale
Aug. 17 (Bloomberg)

The cost of shipping Middle East crude to Asia, the world's busiest market for supertankers, may rise today as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumps more oil and two storms threaten to disrupt shipping.

OPEC, supplier of 40 percent of the world's crude, has increased shipments by 1 million barrels a day since July ``without saying anything,'' Jennifer Gordon, a New York-based trading analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities said in an e-mailed note yesterday. A supertyphoon approaching Taiwan and a hurricane off the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean may delay vessels.

``Weather is always a factor for market movement,'' Nikos Varvaropoulos, a tanker broker for Athens-based Optima Shipbrokers, said in an e-mailed note today.

The benchmark rental rate for shipments to Asia, used to settle freight contracts between owners and oil companies, climbed 1.2 percent to 50.44 Worldscale points yesterday, its biggest one-day gain in six weeks. The rate was previously at its lowest since October 2003.

At 50.44 Worldscale points, owners of double-hulled VLCCs can earn about $19,191 a day on a 38-day round trip from Saudi Arabia to South Korea, based on a formula by R.S. Platou, an Oslo-based shipbroker, and Bloomberg bunker prices.

Frontline Ltd., the world's biggest VLCC operator, said May 30 it needs $29,500 a day to break even on each of its supertankers.

Bookings for supertankers sailing from the Middle East to Asia account for 47 percent of global demand for the carriers, according to New York-based McQuilling Brokerage Partners LLP. Shipments to the U.S. and Caribbean, the second-biggest market, account for 14 percent of demand for supertankers.

Banc of America Dowgrades Overseas (OSG)

Oil Tanker Stocks Fall on Analyst Downgrade and Expected Rate Slump
Wednesday July 25, 12:08 pm
NEW YORK (AP)

Stocks of companies that own and operate crude oil tankers mostly fell Wednesday, after a Banc of America Securities analyst downgraded Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. and said the third quarter may be challenging for the sector.

Analyst Daniel L. Barcelo downgraded Overseas Shipholding to "Neutral" from "Buy" as the stock approached his fair value estimate. He maintained the stock as his top pick in the sector, but said he no longer sees any near-term catalysts to drive up the stock.

Across the sector, Barcelo said the tanker companies should post "solid" second-quarter earnings, although they may struggle in the near-term as tanker charter rates slip.

"Looking ahead, the third quarter may prove difficult as rates have collapsed between 25 to 50 percent since peaking in early May due to relatively high inventory levels, limited OPEC production and refinery turnarounds," the analyst said. "Thus we expect third-quarter rates will drop about 25 percent from second-quarter levels, on average, for all three major types of crude vessels."

The analyst expects tanker rates to even out throughout the rest of the year, and then to turn around in 2008 and 2009.

In midday trading, shares of Overseas Shipholding fell 32 cents to $84.

Frontline Ltd. fell 63 cents to $47.71, while Teekay Corp. rose 7 cents to $55.89.

Ship Finance International Ltd. fell 58 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $29.25. The stock has traded between $18.41 and $31.78 in the last 12 months.

General Maritime Corp. fell 3 cents to $27.45, and Aries Maritime Transport Ltd. rose 4 cents to $9.97.

Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. rose 40 cents to $29.32.