Persian Gulf Tanker Rates May Drop

Persian Gulf Tanker Rates May Drop as Refineries Delay Cargoes
By Alaric Nightingale
Dec. 20 (Bloomberg)

The cost of shipping Middle East crude to Asia, the world's busiest market for supertankers, may drop as oil companies resist paying record prices to hire ships.

Very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, are making about $300,000 a day on benchmark international trade routes to Asia, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg. In 2004, the previous record year, they made $290,000 a day, according to London-based shipbroker Galbraith's Ltd.

Charterers who hire ships for oil companies may now be ``holding back if possible for fear of paying too much,'' Charlie Fowle, a director at the company, said in an e-mailed note today.

Sinochem Corp., China's biggest chemicals trader, hired the tanker C. Champion at a rate of 285 Worldscale points, according to a report today from Oslo-based shipbroker PF Bassoe AS. That's 10 percent below the London-based Baltic Exchange's benchmark rate of 317.66 points for voyages to Asia.

Higher Rates

Flat rates for ships loading next year are higher than those in 2007 because of record refueling costs. The Baltic Exchange's assessments reflect 2007 flat rates until the end of the year.

At 317.66 Worldscale points, owners of double-hulled very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, can earn about $297,0777 a day on a 39-day round trip from Saudi Arabia to South Korea, based on a formula by R.S. Platou, an Oslo-based shipbroker, and Bloomberg marine fuel prices.

That means costs for Japanese refineries fell 0.4 percent to $7.42 a barrel from $7.45 a barrel on Dec. 18.

There are 23 modern two-hulled tankers available for hire within the next 30 days, according to a report today from Paris- based Barry Rogliano Salles. There were 40 such ships competing for cargoes two months ago, according to the shipbroker.

Hebei Spirit

South Korea Battles Biggest Oil Spill in 4 1/2 Years
By Sungwoo Park and Bomi Lim
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg)

South Korea battled to contain the world's biggest oil spill in 4 1/2 years after a supertanker collided with a barge near Hyundai Oilbank Co.'s refinery on the nation's west coast.

The collision caused three holes on the ship's side and 10,500 metric tons (78,750 barrels) of crude oil was spilled, the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries said in a statement today. The Hebei Spirit has stopped leaking and the slick is 7.4 kilometers (4.6 miles) long and 2 kilometers wide, it said.

Hebei Spirit is fitted with one hull, according to Lloyd's Register-Fairplay, which assigns ship-registration numbers. An international ban on such ships is due to start in 2010. Modern tankers are fitted with two hulls to cut the risk of an oil spill and are usually more expensive to hire.

South Korean oil companies are probably the world's ``biggest users'' of single-hull tankers, Per Mansson, a tanker broker at Nor Ocean Stockholm AB, said in an e-mailed note today. ``This might change policies in Korea and that would be tremendous for the market.''

The government will form a committee comprising oil-spill experts and seek help from residents of nearby regions to contain the slick, according to the statement. The vessel held 263,000 tons of crude oil and there were no casualties, it said.

The spill is the worst in South Korea's history and the biggest anywhere since the Tasman Spirit leaked about 27,000 tons of oil at the port of Karachi in Pakistan in July 2003, Tim Wadsworth, technical support manager for the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation Ltd. in London, said by phone.

Barge Crashes

The oil leaked after a crane on the barge crashed into the Hebei Spirit at 7:15 a.m. local time, said Jeong Seong Mun, deputy director at the ministry's safety information center. The barge, owned by Samsung Heavy Industries Co., suffered minor damage, the ministry said in an earlier statement.

The leak is almost a third of the 37,000 tons spilled into Prince William Sound, Alaska, by the Exxon Valdez in 1989, according to data on the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation's Web site.

Today's spill surpasses a 1995 accident in South Korean waters, when 5,000 tons of oil leaked at Yeosu, 455 kilometers south of Seoul. The country mobilized 166,905 people, 8,295 boats and 45 aircraft to contain the spill, which resulted in 9.6 billion won ($104 million) of economic losses, the ministry said in a statement.

The government has sent 30 patrol boats, 4 helicopters and 10 oil-spill control vessels to the site of the latest spill and is yet to assess its economic impact, said Lee Woo Sung, an official at the ministry.

Natural Resources

The environment ministry is studying what damage the spill may have caused, Cho Gyu Won, an assistant director at the ministry's natural resources division, said from Gwacheon, near Seoul.

The tanker was carrying crude oil for Hyundai Oilbank's refinery at Daesan, Kim Sung Yong, a spokesman for the company, said by telephone. South Korea's fourth-biggest oil refiner may reduce processing at its 390,000 barrels-a-day Daesan plant following the spill, said company officials who asked not to be identified.

Hyundai Oilbank's Kim said the crude-oil processing rate at the refinery remains unchanged at about 80 percent of capacity. The company is using its stockpiles and will ask state-run Korea National Oil Corp. for an emergency supply, if needed, he said.

The very large crude carrier, or VLCC, capable of carrying more than 2 million barrels of oil, is registered to Hong Kong- based Hebei Ocean Shipping Co., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A man who answered the phone at the company's office wouldn't comment and declined to identify himself.

Single Hull

Of the eight VLCCs listed on Hebei Ocean's Web site, at least six are fitted with a single hull, according to the Lloyd's Register-Fairplay database.

The accident led owners of double-hull tankers to raise prices for leasing the vessels by 15 percent compared with benchmark prices yesterday, Charlie Fowle, a director at London- based shipbroker Galbraith's Ltd., said by phone today.

Contracts called forward freight agreements that indicate the future cost of shipping oil jumped by as much as 8 percent, according to Ben Goggin, head of tanker FFAs at broker London- based SSY Futures Ltd.

Teekay's Spin-Offs

Teekay Tankers' Taste of Success
Ruthie Ackerman
12.13.07
Forbes.com

Teekay Corp. thinks the whole is less than the sum of its parts.

The energy-based maritime conglomerate has spun off yet another one of its major operations. On its first day of trading Thursday, shares in Teekay Tankers (nyse: TNK) gained 4.0%, or 78 cents, to $20.28. Its initial public offering price of $19.50 per share was at the high end of the anticipated range.

The offering was of a 40% interest in Teekay Tankers; parent Teekay Corp. (nyse: TK) is retaining 60%.

Teekay also has spun off Teekay Offshore Partners (nyse: TOO), which specializes in fleets for storage of oil for offshore units, and Teekay LNG Partners (nyse: TGP), which operates vessels that carry liquified natural gas.

Since it began its spin-off program in May 2005, Teekay stock is up 28.5%. Teekay LNG is up 33.0% since it came public in May 2005, and Teekay Offshore has risen 20.2% since its debut in December 2006. By contrast, an index of energy-transport companies compiled by Revere Data has increased only about 11% since May 2005.


Charles W. Rupinski, an analyst at Maxim Group, said Teekay's tanker business is its most volatile one, and management probably thought it was dragging down the valuation of the company as a whole.

Even though spot rates are very high right now and Teekay has a lot of spot exposure, going forward the tanker business is facing many challenges and investors are likely to be cautious, Rupinski said.

Indeed, although the offering did well, investors put a significantly lower value on the spin-off than the parent. Using the pro forma earnings for last year provided by the Teekay Tankers offering document, the spin-off was valued at 9.2 times last year's income while the parent fetched 12.7 times last year's reported profit. The spin-off is planning to return a high proportion of its earnings to shareholders by way of dividends.

Teekay Tankers is getting nine double-hull Aframax-class tankers, which will be used for spot charters and short- or medium-term fixed-rate time-charter contracts. At the end of June, the ships, whose name derives from the acronym for average freight rate assessment and which are smaller than the oil supertankers that cannot make it into some harbors and canals, were worth about $275 million

Teekay Tankers raised about $180.8 million from the IPO after expenses and commissions. The proceeds will be used to partially repay Teekay for the inital fleet.

In addition, Teekay will give Teekay Tankers the opportunity to purchase up to to four Suez-max class tankers within 18 months. These ships are built to fit through the Suez Canal.

Asian Aframax Rate Gains Most Since 2005

Asian Aframax Rate Gains Most Since Feb. 2005 on Yearend Demand
By Katherine Espina
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg)

Asian aframax rates rose the most in two years and nine months, benefiting from higher costs for chartering bigger tankers and boosted by increased shipments for January ahead of the yearend holidays.

The rate to transport 80,000 metric tons of fuel from Kuwait to Singapore jumped 12 percent yesterday to Worldscale 233.75, according to the London-based Baltic Exchange. The gain is the biggest since Feb. 23, 2005, when the rate rose 16 percent. Shipping a ton of fuel on the route costs $19.94, based on Bloomberg data.

Hiring rates of supertankers, also known as very large crude carriers or VLCCs, on the Middle East to Far East routes have risen almost four percent since November, prompting charterers to split cargoes so smaller ships like suezmaxes and aframaxes can move them. Supertanker rates may extend gains after an oil spill in South Korea last week involving a single- hull vessel increased speculation of more demand for two-hull tankers.

``There is a knock-on effect from VLCC rates rising,'' Takeshi Ando at the tanker team of shipbroker Matsui & Co. in Tokyo said. ``Aframax owners don't like to offer below VLCC rates so I expect this sector will still go up,'' Ando said by phone.

The hiring rate for a supertanker on the Middle East-Japan route rose 5.5 percent yesterday to Worldscale 227.19, advancing more than fourfold since the start of the year, according to the Baltic Exchange's data. A supertanker on the Middle East-Singapore route gained 5.6 percent to Worldscale 231.56, its fourth day of gains.

Winter Demand

Aframax rates on the Middle East-Singapore route surged 4.5 percent last week, bringing gains in the past eight weeks to 78 percent, as transport demand rose to meet fuel needs for the Northern Hemisphere winter and shipowners passed on the additional costs from higher bunker prices.

Five aframaxes, capable of moving a total of 543,920 tons of fuel, are scheduled to arrive in Singapore this week while one with 113,013-ton capacity will arrive next week, according to Bloomberg data. That compares with three last week, with the capacity to haul a total of 309,880 tons of fuel.

The collision between a barge and the single-hulled supertanker Hebei Spirit on Dec. 7 in South Korea spilt 10,500 metric tons (78,750 barrels) of oil, the worst oil spill in the world in four-and-a-half years.

The following is a table of rates to charter smaller tankers capable of carrying less than 1 million barrels of crude oil or oil products on Asian routes as of Dec. 11, according to the Baltic Exchange.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Route Tons Rate Change Carrier
--------------------------------------------------------------
Kuwait-Singapore 80,000 233.75 +11.86% Aframax
Persian Gulf-Japan 75,000 209.17 +0.40% Oil Product Tanker
Singapore-Japan 30,000 312.50 0% Oil Product Tanker
Middle East-Japan 55,000 251.73 +0.23% Oil Product Tanker
--------------------------------------------------------------

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index through the roof

Well, it finally happened

A single-hull tanker spilled.

Freight Derivatives Surge After South Korea Oil Spill
By Alaric Nightingale
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg)

Forward freight agreements, contracts that traders buy and sell to bet on the future cost of shipping crude oil, surged after a single-hull tanker was involved in the worst spill in South Korea's history.

Contracts for January climbed as much as 8 percent while those for the first the three months of next year advanced 7 percent, according to Ben Goggin, head of tanker FFAs at SSY Futures Ltd. in London.

``All my sellers from yesterday have turned buyers this morning,'' he said by telephone today. ``This could push rates much higher.''

The Hebei Spirit spilt 10,500 metric tons of crude oil about 5 kilometers (3.1 miles) off the coast of South Korea after it was struck by a crane on a barge. Should South Korea respond by banning such single-hull ships from its waters, it would be ``tremendous'' for the tanker market, Per Mansson, a shipbroker at Nor Ocean Stockholm AB, said in an e-mailed note today.

Modern tankers are fitted with two hulls to cut the risk of an oil spill and usually cost more to hire.

Contracts that indicate the cost of shipping crude in January climbed to 140 Worldscale points, from 130 yesterday, Goggin said. FFAs for the first quarter of next year rose to 120 Worldscale points from 112 points.

$108,000 a Day

Worldscale points are a percentage of a nominal rate, or flat rate, for more than 320,000 specific routes. Flat rates for every voyage, quoted in U.S. dollars a ton, are revised annually by the Worldscale Association in London to reflect changing fuel costs, port tariffs and exchange rates.

Based on 2007 flat rates, owners of very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, would earn about $108,000 a day for leasing out vessels at a rate of 140 Worldscale points, a formula from Oslo-based shipbroker RS Platou AS and marine-fuel prices compiled by Bloomberg showed. Earnings will turn out to be higher than that because 2008's flat rates will be raised to reflect this year's record refueling costs.

``If it's proved that a double hull would have avoided the spill, then I think it will have huge ramifications,'' Charlie Fowle, a director at Galbraith's Ltd., a London-based shipbroker, said in an interview. ``Everybody will be clamoring for double- hulls.''

Frontline Shares Fall As Contract Ends

Frontline Shares Fall As Contract Ends
Associated Press
12.04.07
Forbes.com

Shares of Frontline Ltd. slipped in trading Tuesday, after a JPMorgan analyst reduced his 2008 earnings estimates to reflect the oil tanker operator's expected losses from the end of two long-term charter agreements.

Frontline (FRO) said earlier Tuesday it ended deals for two vessels with Ship Finance International Ltd. (SFL ), which then sold the tankers for $40 million each. Frontline expects $32.8 million for the contract's early termination.

Analyst Jonathan B. Chappell cut his 2008 profit estimate to $2.55 per share from $2.70 per share, saying the company "continues to trade short-term gains for long-term earnings losses."

He reiterated his "Underweight" rating for Frontline, and suggested the stock should underperform other tanker operators for the next nine months to a year.

Shares of Frontline fell $1.76, or 3.9 percent, to close at $42.87. The stock has ranged between $29.35 and $53.09 in the past year.

Chappell also lowered 2008 profit estimate on Ship Finance to $1.77 per share from $1.96 per share.

However, Chappell said that unlike Frontline, he expects Ship Finance to use the sale's proceeds to diversify and expand its fleet outside of the struggling tanker market.

He maintained his "Overweight" rating.

Ship Finance shares fell 57 cents to $24.64.

Nokta and Chappell in 2006

Around the Markets: Rising tide lifts stock of cargo firms
By Dune Lawrence
JULY 11, 2006
International Herald Tribune

NEW YORK: As U.S. stocks sank in May and June, shares of oil tanker companies like Teekay Shipping proved buoyant, outperforming the Standard & Poor's 500 index by 17 percentage points.

The surge reverses 18 months of underperformance and may mean further gains to come, as share prices play catch-up to profit growth, with the added luster of dividends that outstrip even high- yielding utilities. The companies themselves also consider their stock cheap, if $1.31 billion in buybacks in the past year is any indication.

"As an investor, you want to buy when things are bleak, and these things have been pretty bleak," said J.C. Waller, who manages the Icon Energy Fund. "When you find that combination of value, dividend yield and price appreciation coming from where these things have been, you can't ignore it."

The Bloomberg tanker index jumped 14 percent from the end of April through June 30, as daily rates for the largest carriers reached a four-month high in what is usually a period of price declines. The S&P 500 slipped 3.1 percent in that same period. Overseas Shipholding Group, the biggest U.S.-based owner of oil tankers, led the advance with a 21 percent gain. Teekay climbed 8.8 percent.

The tanker index touched its low point for the year in mid-April, 32 percent below its record high of November 2004. Even after rebounding, its price stands at 8.2 times earnings over the past 12 months, compared with 13.4 when the index peaked. The S&P 500 trades at 17 times earnings.

whose fund has outperformed 80 percent of similar funds over the past five years, estimates that an S&P index of tanker and pipeline stocks is 22 percent undervalued.

"They've gotten so low that there's not a whole lot of downside," said Malcolm Polley at S&T Wealth Management Group. Polley started buying Frontline and General Maritime in February.

And business is improving in the industry. Freight rates for the class of ships known as very large crude carriers, which can carry two million barrels of oil, on routes from the Gulf to the United States and to Japan have climbed 25 percent and 52 percent, respectively, since April.

Earnings have held up better than many analysts predicted this year. First-quarter profit at all six members of the tanker index exceeded the estimates of analysts.

Omar Nokta, an analyst at Dahlman Rose, an investment bank that specializes in shipping and energy companies, raised his earnings predictions for some tanker stocks twice in June. Constraints in the supply of tankers, and the need to lock in oil contracts further in advance, will support earnings growth and cash flow and justify higher share prices, he said.

Nokta raised his 2006 profit projection for Teekay, the world's largest oil tanker owner, to $4.79 a share from $3.98. He expects Overseas Shipholding Group to earn $10.24 a share, up from $8.31.

"If you buy now, you get this awesome run for the fourth quarter," said Nokta. "Most of the Street hasn't changed their estimates yet, not even for the current environment."

Some analysts say that the higher rates, and the rally, will not last. They warn that the stocks' low valuations reflect the risk of investing in an industry where rates and earnings fluctuate rapidly.

Jonathan Chappell at J.P. Morgan Chase in New York attributed the June rate surge to short-term factors including the use of some tankers as storage by Iran and Saudi Arabia.

"Everything else, from inventories to demand estimates to the number of ships that have been removed this year, points to a bearish market," Chappell said.

The share prices also reflect concern that there are too many new tankers being built as estimates for the growth in demand for oil decline. The International Energy Agency expects demand to increase 1.8 percent this year, compared with a peak of 3.8 percent in 2004.

Tanker demand will increase 3.8 percent in 2006 through 2008, compared with fleet growth of 5.4 percent, according to a June estimate by shipping analysts at Jefferies in Houston.